Crop breeding and modification to develop perennial cereals, offering ecological and climate resilience benefits over annual crops.
Perennial food crops
Agriculture is based largely on annual cereal crops. In view of their associated environmental issues and apparent limited resilience to climate change, there is growing interest in the potential of perennial cereals. In general, compared with annual cereals, they accumulate carbon in the soil via massive root systems, reduce nitrate leaching, and improve soil conditions and fertility. Breeding efforts have been going on for more than a century, sporadically; a few perennial varieties of wheat, rye, sorghum and rice do exist, some with superior nutritional quality. One might then imagine that agriculture should be based on perennials rather than annuals. There are massive challenges and big unknowns, however, related to breeding and ecological tradeoffs. While some scientists doubt the possibility of a widespread perennial-based food agriculture, there seems broad agreement on the potential ecological value of perennial cereals as one component in modern farming systems, if these could be developed with the appropriate traits.
This innovation primarily aims to reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture through two key mechanisms. First, by decreasing the energy requirements in cropping systems through reduced reliance on annual sowing and tillage, and secondly by enhancing soil fertility and condition.
What impact could it have?
Potential for transformative impact
high
This innovation is deemed a game changer, boasting a high intensity of potential impacts on the environment and agricultural management systems.
Human health impact
low
Small direct human health benefits could be anticipated, primarily through greater nutritional value in the grain. However, the realization of these benefits hinges on the trade-offs involved.
Environmental impact
high
The innovation holds the potential for significant environmental impacts, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions from the soil, improved soil fertility and carbon storage, and the possibility of net-negative or even negative systems. It may also lead to reduced energy use in agriculture, such as reduced tillage, and increased water use efficiency. However, potential unintended consequences related to farming practices and pest management could result in increased herbicide and pesticide use.
Livelihood impact
low - medium
The impact on livelihoods is mixed and highly uncertain, given the unknown management and economics of perennial-based agriculture. The influence on food prices and consumer benefits remains unclear, though true-cost accounting of perennial cereals may benefit consumers. Equity impacts are contingent on innovation accessibility and costs for poorer producers.
Socio-cultural impact
low - medium
Socio-cultural impacts are mixed and somewhat dependent on the techniques used in the innovation's development. Concerns about social acceptability, such as the "frankencrops" label, could arise in some contexts. Power concentration issues would be heavily influenced by accessibility and intellectual property challenges.
Equity impact
low - medium
Equity impacts are mixed and reliant on accessibility and intellectual property issues that may affect vulnerable groups. Without safeguards, this innovation could exacerbate existing power imbalances. Conversely, changes necessitated in intensive farming systems to accommodate perennial cereals could generate considerable employment and income opportunities in related parts of the value chain, including inputs, transport, and post-processing. However, it may reduce employment opportunities in the primary producer sector due to the reduction of labor-intensive activities.
What factors influence scaling?
Investment trends for next-generation crops are characterized by a growing commitment to agricultural innovation and sustainability. Investors are increasingly directing funds toward crop research and development that focuses on traits such as improved resilience to climate change, enhanced nutritional content, and higher yields with reduced resource inputs. With recent developments in genetic editing techniques, with the CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing technology, this field is attracting substantial investments.
The bundling potential is highly uncertain. The effects on resource utilization, trade-offs, management systems, and consumption characteristics remain largely unknown. This innovation extends far beyond a simple one-for-one substitution.
The innovation is globally applicable and relevant to all types of crop and mixed crop-livestock production systems.
The global scope of adoption is conceivable, though potential barriers, including intellectual property rights for all producers and issues related to distribution, cost, and accessibility for small-scale producers, must be addressed.
The global scope of adoption is conceivable, though potential barriers, including intellectual property rights for all producers and issues related to distribution, cost, and accessibility for small-scale producers, must be addressed.
The innovation has the potential for high disruption, particularly within crop production input and output supply chains and markets, affecting most producers and consumers. Resistance may arise from the seed manufacturing and distribution sectors, which may feel threatened. It could significantly alter farm practices, management, crop rotations, and potentially impact pest management and harvesting techniques.
Many players are actively engaged in the field.
The innovation could introduce longer-term agroecological trade-offs in production systems, heightening the risks of ecological breakdown with negative impacts on food security. Altering crop rotations could affect chemical input use, leading to uncertain consequences. It may make it more challenging for farmers to switch out seeds due to lock-in, similar to plantation crops, potentially slowing adaptation to climate change. This could also impact crop insurances, increasing costs as planting choices have multiple years of exposure to weather conditions. Undesirable shifts in equity and power relations are possible in different contexts.
Some work has been conducted under Australian conditions for existing varieties of hybrid wheat (e.g., Bell et al., 2008).
Where is acceleration most needed?
Accelerator scores reflect the degree of action needed across eight key accelerators of change that can enable an innovation to scale. A higher score signals that greater effort and support are needed in that area to unlock uptake at scale. Click on each accelerator to see what’s been achieved and what still needs attention.
Building Trust
Building Trust
Social acceptability issues may arise in some countries, potentially posing a moderate challenge to uptake.
Transforming Mindsets
Transforming Mindsets
Acceptance of the innovation itself may not be a significant constraint in many countries.
Enabling Social License
Enabling Social License
The responsible development of this innovation at scale may face considerable challenges in some countries.
Ensuring Stable Finance
Ensuring Stable Finance
At the current stage of development, the innovation's precise nature is yet to be determined, and this could change further down the impact pathway.
Designing Market Incentives
Designing Market Incentives
The need for designing market incentives could well change further down the impact pathway.
Changing Policies and Regulations
Changing Policies and Regulations
A need for adaption in policies and regulations could well change further down the impact pathway.
Safeguarding Against Undesirable Effects
Safeguarding Against Undesirable Effects
Monitoring of impacts across the board will be key.
Developing Transition Pathways
Developing Transition Pathways
Developing transition pathways will be critical if this innovation becomes viable and starts to move to scale. Preliminary work could be undertaken already using existing perennial varieties as models to develop the changes needed in existing farming systems.
Reference
Bell et al., 2008. A preliminary whole-farm economic analysis of perennial wheat in an Australian dryland farming system. Agricultural Systems 96, 166-174.
Duchene O et al., 2019. Integrating multipurpose perennial grains crops in Western European farming systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 284, 106591.
Hayes RC et al., 2012. Perennial cereal crops: An initial evaluation of wheat derivatives. Field Crops Research 133, 68-89.
Rudoy D et al., 2021. Review and analysis of perennial cereal crops at different maturity stages. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937, p. 022111
Smaje C, 2015. The strong perennial vision: A critical review. Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems 39(5), 471-499.
